A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
